Brrr! What's Happening to the Sun?

(As always, click on the picture to enlarge it; you will see it describes the years 1988 to 2008. Or click on c4s to find the source of data and other details.)

What are the causes of this temperature drop, according to the popular press, the lunatic fringe, and climatologists?

Global warming stopped!!!

Some headlines scream: New Ice Age Coming Soon. Others, more moderate, predict at least a new " little ice age." The original Little Ice Age was the period 1645 to 1715 AD, known as the Maunder Minimum. That was the time of Galileo and Kepler. Crops across Europe failed, the river Thames froze in London, and the population of Germany dropped by a third. In the aftermath of the 30 Years War, bands of soldiers roamed the countryside and depopulated villages, searching for food. [1]. According to some websites, this may be our near future, just a year or a decade ahead.

Here are a few examples:

The popular press: "Cold future lying in wait"

Dearth Of Sunspot Activity To Herald New Ice Age?
Science blog [sic]: Widescale [sic] Global Cooling
Cool Weather... Heralding a New Maunder Minimum & Ice-Age?

"Our own observatory at Armagh ... has shown .. that over the next two decades, global temperatures may fall by about 2 degrees C .. However, temperatures have already fallen by about 0.5 degrees C over the past 12 months and, if this is only the start of it, it would be a serious concern."

Reality check: Data from Armagh Observatory are on line, but predictions of Sun activity are nowhere to be found.

Newspapers do not provide sources, but refer to "researchers" somewhere having discovered this or that. One lone voice becomes "scientists." For example:
Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera of the Institute of Geophysics at the University of Mexico states that " In about ten years the Earth will enter a 'little ice age', which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity," according to a report in the major Mexican newspaper Milenio Diario.

Lunatic fringe: Conspiracy theory of AGW

Philip V. Brennan (left) writes in a right-wing US magazine: "A global warming militant a socialist? How can that be? Well, it can be because the whole purpose of the AGW scam is nothing less than a covert movement to create a world socialist order."
.."The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. .. "
Note : If you think the word "lunatic" is too harsh, read Mr. Brennan's article Ice Age Cometh in Five Years which contains this insight:

"It would seem that God created us step by step, with each extinction, followed by the appearance of a new and vastly improved humanoid species that lasted until a new extinction before the onset of an ice age..."
Note : If you are familiar with Intelligent Design "theory," this is a new variant, Intelligent Design By Trial and Error :-).

c4s c4s . According to the ultra-conservative website FreeRepublic, Lord Monckton (left) published "a mathematical proof that there is no 'climate crisis' in a major, peer-reviewed journal; Physics and Society, a learned journal of the 46,000-strong American Physical Society..."
Reality check : Climatology is a natural science. There are no final "mathematical proofs." Hypotheses are validated or repealed by comparisions of theory with experiment. Incidentally, the article cited was neither peer-reviewed nor supported by the American Physical Society, which has this position on the issue: ... The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring ...

In his other writings about what lies ahead, after Obama was elected the good lord also wrote: U.S. economy predicted to collapse under socialism. That prediction was made without the use of equations. :-)

A list of articles on "global cooling" listed at the bottom of this article gives a peek at the vast riches/rubbish on the web. There are 9,030,000 English pages for "global cooling" on the web, and about 3,370 for global cooling on Google News, as of Feb, 20, 2009. At times, the goal of this blog, to separate the wheat from the chaff, feels more like cleaning the Augean stables. Hercules, lucky guy, was able to divert a couple of rivers to do the job. (Is there a Web equivalent?)

While not as quick and efficient as a re-routed river, reasonably thorough debunking can be found here:

20 myths of GW deniers

and here: Cooling? Myth # 2

Reference [2] provides more information on solar cycles and their effects.

Climatologists

Not all articles on global cooling are rubbish, of course. Some are simply struggling valiantly with the data. In others, climatologists are explaining that it is not possible to predict climate by extrapolating from short weather patterns.

For example, Washington state climatologist Phillip Mote says:
" That would be like saying, 'Well, the stock market had a good week last week, so the recession must be over.' ..". Climatology is not about fitting trend lines through data. It is seeking explanations based on physical laws.

The graph on the right (c4s) is a continuation of a graph from our older post. Both show variations in the solar irradiance, the 11 year solar cycle. This one extends the data to the year 2008 and shows that we are now at the minimum point in the cycle. The current trough is longer and deeper than usual.

The picture on the left illustrates how the Sun looks when at the peak of its irradiance (left half, 2002, lots of sunspots) and at the minimum (right half, 2008, no sunspots).

It would be tempting to jump to the conclusion that the cold weather we are experiencing is caused by this short term decrease in solar irradiance. However, as we noted above, a hypothesis needs to be verified by comparing the measured temperatures to actual calculations of physical effects.

Dr Hansen (left) c4s has shown that the change of irradiance is too small, and far too recent, to explain the drop in temperature. He has shown that even if irradiance remained at the current low level indefinitely, the current growth rate of CO2 would compensate in seven years for that drop in temperature. Measurable warming would then continue, of course.

Searching for a different explanation for the temperature drop this winter, he looked at weather patterns and noticed the following: The past year (2007) witnessed a transition from a weak El Nino to a strong La Nina (the latter is perhaps beginning to moderate already, as the ocean waters near Peru are beginning to warm)... Undoubtedly, the cooling trend through the year was due to the strengthening La Nina, and the unusual coolness in January was aided by a winter weather fluctuation...

Scientists do not always agree, and rarely agree on everything [3]. For example Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, is skeptical: There is no doubt that atmospheric greenhouse gases are rising rapidly and little doubt that some warming and bad ecological events are occurring. However, the main basis of the claim that man's release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models... What should we as a nation do? Decisions have to be made on incomplete information. In this case, we must act on the recommendations of Gore and the IPCC because if we do not reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and the climate models are right, the planet as we know it will in this century become unsustainable...

Most, if not all, reasonable people agree that Earth is round and orbits the Sun. Its average temperature may go up or down as a result of changes in that physical system. When the second largest volcanic eruption of the twentieth century, of Mount Pinatubo, ejected vast amounts of ash into the atmosphere in 1991, it caused global dimming by 0.6 degrees C . The effect lasted two years, before the aerosol (dust in the air) settled.

If GW were a "new religion," as some right wing extremists assert, we might have several heretic sects, some believing that the Earth will freeze, some that it will boil. Science predicts neither. If the Sun's activity did not simply stay as low as it is today, but kept decreasing, we would experience global cooling after few decades and might, after a few decades, eventually enter a new ice age. How do we know this is not going to happen? Actually, we do not know, not with certainty. How we do know that Sun will rise tomorrow? We assume it will, and make our plans accordingly.

Common Sense - decisions under uncertainty

WSB's Kirk Mellish , in a thoughtful blog essay, has this to say on the topic of Global Climate Change: "Borrowing from the author of Franklin and Winston I have tried only to make some small contribution to swelling the ranks of those in what Thomas Jefferson called "reasonable society" -- those willing to approach these questions with an historical sensibility, an analytical mind, and, at the risk of wistfulness, an open heart."

". . . the only hoax I am aware of is the claim of a hoax"..... "I see man-induced global warming as clear and present, and a potential danger for the future of man. But with too much that is not certain to be a clear and present danger."

In my future posts, I will no longer debate the issue "Is Global Warming'Real'." Having examined the issue in some detail, I conclude it is "real," and deserves careful attention. The way science operates in a free society [3] makes a global conspiracy of scientists unlikely, if not impossible. We will continue to receive more measurements from satellites like this one which will measure the distribution and effects of CO2. We will (almost) certainly not enter the new Ice Age in the next few decades. However, we cannot postpone all decisions and wait to see whether Mr. Brennan (above) is wrong.

It is time to set aside philosophical or metaphysical questions of absolute truth or certainty and address the pragmatic and the political.

E.U. Action Soon

The European parliament to be elected this June will prepare legislation addressing climate change that will profoundly affect our lives. Perhaps it will just waste billions of Euros on foolhardy projects, burdening us with new taxes and delaying recovery of economy. What we hope, of course, is that they will examine the possible courses of action and select the most effective, including those which will enhance long-term economic recovery.

There are some 7 political groups of MEPs in the European parliament. Do you know where they stand on carbon issues, on the nuclear energy and other primary sources of energy? At this point, I don't, but I intend to find out. I am reading the reports [4] and I will share here what I find.

You can help: If you know, in addition to English, one of the 27 other EU languages, you may contribute translations of this blog. Do you have specific information about MEPs' beliefs and past actions on these climate change issues? If you can help, leave a comment with your email address.

References

1. The Little Ice Age and the 30 Years War.
   History and controversy
   Possible causes of the Little Ice Age
   Kepler's Witch: An Astronomer's Discovery of Cosmic Order Amid Religious War ...‎ Kepler and religious strife
   Page 275: "... Where the Thirty Years' War begins with the Second Defenestration of Prague, and where Katharina Kepler is tried and convicted of witchcraft. .."

2. More on the irradiance and models. Nasa research briefs
   Specifically: How do Solar Cycle Affect Our Climate?

3. How does science actually work these days?
   At the end of this knol is a reference to a video and to a book on "the story of a search," a "gem of a book on ancient astronomy", showing how researchers compete, make mistakes, and cooperate, correcting their blunders and gradually, step by step, increasing our understanding of the world.
4. June election 2009 and EU energy policies.
   A ‘green’ Europe by 2050
   EU Parliament backs 80% emissions cut .. A spectrum of views
   Second Strategic Energy Review drafted by Anne Laperrouze (MoDem, France)

Happy? New Year.

Certainly an exciting year is ahead, at least to those with a strong sense of irony. In the first post of this blog we pondered doom scenarios in general philosophical terms.
Now it is time to get specific: The Czech republic will assume presidency of the EU in January 2009.The priorities they set on their already running presidency website are the three E's : The Economy, Energy and the External Relations of the EU. The first two are already disaster areas. Let's see what is likely to happen in the third area as the nations of the world try to negotiate ETS caps.
As I write, representatives from 192 countries are gathered in Poznan, Poland, for a two-week UN-sponsored conference. . Main item on the agenda is ETS - Emission Trading Schemes. These are an environmental tax imposed on the companies which release a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. This meeting of more than 9000 participants from both governmental and non-governmental organizations is intended to build momentum toward the Copenhagen, Denmark meeting in December 2009. The new treaty to be adopted in Copenhagen would replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. In 2013 caps on emissions would become mandatory, which means that electricity produced from fossil fuels would become more expensive. Or, as ordinary citizens would say, "even more expensive." Whether you support or oppose such a scheme, you want to be informed.

Preliminary Promises

Major alliances, unions, and federations are contemplating the adoption of green policies, or are at least issuing bulletins about them.

• EU has agreed to a 20% emission reduction by 2020. President Barosso (on the left) created a new EU directorate, a directorate-general , adding (DG) for energy to 41 DGs of the European Commission.
• In a dramatic American change, Barry Obama promissed to reduce U.S. emissions to their 1990 levels by 2020 cutting them by another 80 percent by 2050..
• Having ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2004, Russia behaved in "a typically Russian way.It announced numerous projects to promote the protocol. But these were just words. But these were just words." In practice, "Russia has not done anything at all."

All these preliminary plans, promises, and posturings are fine. One can be optimistic, but only cautiously so. The caps are not compulsory yet. Binding caps should be agreed upon at the end of 2009, with preparation for implementation over the following four years. Because we all share the same, well-mixed atmosphere, the environmental tax will only work if all countries and blocks participate. That might take a miracle to achieve. But miracles do happen. In 1963, in the middle of the Cold War, the nuclear powers signed a Test Ban Treaty, which prohibited the testing of nuclear weapons in the air. Two physicists who helped develop the H bomb, Teller and Sacharov, provided their governments with evidence that such testing was poisoning the atmosphere.

Greenhouse Gases: Why are they important?

As you have surely noticed, the role of GHG or greenhouse gases in global warming is being contested.
There are arguments for intervention and arguments against urgent action. This blog will always listen to both sides in the debate.

Many of the arguments are complex and technical, expounded in scientific papers on the causes of past changes in climate, such as the Ice Ages. Both sides agree that average temperatures are higher when the concentration of GHG is higher. They disagree about which is the cause and which is the effect.
The reconstruction of past temperatures, using tree rings and glacier cores, for example, entails complex and often contested reasoning. How much of the temperature change was caused by different outputs of the sun, or by the geometrical configuration of the sun and Earth, and how much by changes in the Earth atmosphere? Such puzzles are both fascinating and frustrating long before they become politicized.

The two graphs here bypass those complex arguments. These data were collected by satellites, which can directly record the energy output of the sun with measurements taken above the atmosphere, as well as measure the global surface temperature of the Earth. The top graph, the output of the Sun, shows the well-known 11 year cycle. Clearly, it shows no overall trend either up or down. The bottom graph shows the average temperature of the Earth at the surface. It shows a clear upward trend, demonstrating that the atmosphere now traps more of the sun's energy. That is the greenhouse effect of higher concentrations of GHGs. However, notice that the relationship is not simple. The Earth's vast oceans act as reservoirs, absorbing both heat and carbon dioxide. Complex dynamics determine how much the absorbed heat will raise temperatures. Nevertheless, more heat always means higher temperature.

For more information you can consult the sources of this data: Top graph: solar cycle data and bottom graph: surface temperature data.

In addition, interesting animated maps show changes in surface temperature derived by NASA from both satellite measurements and indirect indicators. The two animations cover the years from 1880 to 2007. They include pre-satellite and indirect data sets. These are therefore regarded as less certain than the data in the graphs above.

A Positive Note: Reprieve for the Milky Way?

In our careful reporting of both sides of arguments, we observe that it may be good environmental news that the LHC, or Large Hadron Collider, is down for repairs. This is the world's largest physics experiment to-date. Using the LHC in their search, physicists in Geneva, in the EU research center CERN (video) have been looking for Higgs boson.

Why they are looking for Higgs boson? It is not a particle which Dr. Higgs misplaced. He only predicted its existence, using the "standard model" for elementary particles, which plays a role similar to that which the Periodic Table of Elements did for chemistry. Some call this yet-to-be found little particle "God's particle," certainly an attention-getting nickname. The LHC search is expected to be restarted in Summer 2009.

Why is the shutdown possible good news to environmentalists? Well, on the list of all the possible disasters which Earth may meet, which are helpfully collected, explained, and even illustrated on the Dutch website Exit Mundi, the start up of the LHC was listed as first. One chemist is worried that the LHC will create a black hole, which would destroy the Milky way (with us in it). This concern was picked up by the news media and added to our daily dose of planetary uneasiness. The physicists, of course, are denying that this can happen. In either case, the LHC will be down until summer 2009, a definite reprieve for the Milky Way. Then, if the physicists, rather than the chemist, are right, we can proceed to the conference in Copenhagen next December.

In the meantime, Happy New Year!

Steps ahead

"More than any time in history

 mankind faces a crossroads.
   One path leads to despair
      and utter hopelessness,
  the other to total extinction. 

    
  Let us pray that we have the wisdom 
     to choose correctly."
               Woody Allen  
              translations

Imagine:

steps A field covered with freshly-fallen snow, undisturbed and pristine, except for a single line of footprints heading out into the field. Without any discernible change in their steady progress, they suddenly end out there in the field.
In another Čapek story, inspired by the philosophical writings of David Hume, a single footprint found on a wide virgin plain, leads to contemplation of what happened, and how we can reconstruct the past.
Like G.B.Shaw and Huxley, Čapek uses mystery stories and science fiction to illustrate
moral principles, and to comment on human nature and human foibles.
As one reviewer and biographer describes it:

"Čapek's 1917 collection Boží muka (Wayside Crosses) is more philosophical than his newspaper stories. Deeply pessimistic, this collection reflects the author's spiritual crisis during the First World War. In The Footprint, which is based on David Hume's speculations about an isolated print in the sand, two men find a mysterious, single footprint in fresh snow that leads nowhere.

One of the men considers the footprint a miracle, a manifestation of God, but the second man dismantles the usefulness of miracles, arguing that they have no place in a rational world. . ."
If we lived in a rational world, we could say:
"Things like that like this do not happen. This is just a fantasy." 
They do not happen in a literal sense, but as allegory, these stories point us to similar mysteries:
The traces of the past civilizations buried in sand, the abandoned caves of the Anasazi Indians, the legends of Atlantis, the Easter Island where its famous gigantic stone statues were carved.[5]. What can these stories of vanished civilizations, both the imagined stories and those which actually happened, tell us about our situation today?
Perhaps in a few thousand years, alien cosmonauts will land on planet Earth and discover traces of an advanced civilization
(or perhaps, from their point of view, of a primitive uncivilized society) and will wonder what happened here.
"How did it end? How and why did the footprints stop?" they will ask.

We often assume that the residents of Easter Island or the Anasazi caves were completely unconscious of the consequences of their actions or the direction of their future. We tend to believe that we are more conscious of our actions because they have vanished and we are still here.
As they began to cut the last trees on Easter Island, did some among them not object? Did the Anasazi perhaps see changes making their life in the caves more precarious, and discuss what to do?

We, too, are at a crossroads in our civilization.
To consciously and wisely choose a direction for our future, we must be able to discern a pattern in the stampede of our recent footprints, in the present cacophony of voices.
 A thoughtful discussion of those patterns, and of the kinds of alternate futures we could choose, is essential at this juncture.
This blog aims to bring together those voices and offer a critical review .
This is an invitation to a journey to a common journey of an unknown landscape of the near future.
We will make maps, make plans and explore diverse approaches.
I do not know the right path and answers to questions, questions about Global warming about
  "potentially catastrophic changes could occur with global warming of more than 2 degrees C" and possible solutions," which the EU  brochure "action against climate change" [6] is talking about. But with help of Google search engine, some science training and friends I may meet on the way I intend to find out. How serious the threat is, how quickly it may come, is it true, and what, if anything we need to do. Should we fight it as the EU brochure is recommending, or should wait and perhaps adapt to possible changes. There are many views, many opinions, and even some facts. Before choosing a way, let's survey the land.

References

The footprints suddenly ending...
1. POVÍDKY Z JEDNÉ KAPSY -The entire e-book in the original Czech
2. English translations on the Amazon site
3. Karel Capek, "Der Fußstapfen," Gottesmarter (Berlin: S. Fischer, 1918)> German translation
4. David Hume's seminal discourse

Global warming and collapse of societies
5. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed

Leading global action to 2020 and beyond - EU brochures several languages

 Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and ... Pithy and powerful, the opening of Elizabeth Kolbert's book about global warming